Stock Market Cycle Tracker
Market valuation analysis with 140+ years of historical context
● LIVE DATA
Current readings place the market at the 98th percentile of historical valuations, matching or exceeding previous bubble peaks in 1929, 2000, and 2021.
Four eras when CAPE reached the 90th percentile or higher. Peak valuations and subsequent S&P 500 performance:
| Era | Peak CAPE | Peak Buffett | 1Y Return | Max Drawdown | Fell 20%+ |
|---|
CAPE Ratio (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings), developed by economist Robert Shiller, divides the S&P 500 index price by the average of ten years of earnings, adjusted for inflation. By smoothing out short-term fluctuations, it provides a long-term view of U.S. stock market valuation. Data extends back to 1881.
Buffett Indicator divides the total value of all publicly traded U.S. stocks by U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). Named after Warren Buffett, who called it "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment." It measures overall U.S. market valuation relative to the size of the economy.
Composite Score is the average of two percentile rankings: the CAPE ratio's percentile (vs. all monthly observations since 1881) and the Buffett Indicator's percentile (vs. all quarterly observations since 1947). Example score: (98 + 100) / 2 = 99.
Credit Spread is shown separately as a sentiment indicator. It measures how much extra yield investors demand for corporate bonds over Treasuries. Low spreads indicate complacency—investors aren't worried about defaults. Historically, spreads this low (19th percentile) have preceded major market peaks, though they don't predict timing.